Dr. Sawsan I. Al-assaf // On 9th June a contingent of forces headed by the fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), managed to take over Mosul, the second largest Iraqi city, and drove forward to take over Tikrit, another major city situated on the northern borders of Baghdad the capital. ISIS also managed to take parts of al-Anbar and Diyala provinces, as well as threatening the oil rich province of Kirkuk. ISIS and its allied forces are claiming that there next target is Baghdad. As it appeared after the fall of Mosul and Tikrit the ISIS was joined by members of the old disbanded army and members of the outlawed Baath Party. This sudden success of ISIS took the Iraqi central government by surprise. But this deterioration was not unexpected in view of the continuing failures of the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to solve any of the problems he created during his two terms in office. If one is to trace the causes of this debacle one cannot but attribute them to the mistakes of the US administration in Iraq since 2003 and those of the al-Maliki.
The US mistakes did not stop at illegitimately occupying a sovereign country but were extended to laying the basis for a divided country. The decisions of the civil US governor Paul Bremer in 2003 to dissolve the Iraqi army and of de-Baathification, which resulted in throwing out hundreds of thousands of members of the two organisations who had great experience in security duties cannot be disregarded. More harmful was Bremer’s decision to build a new army by amalgamating the different religious and sectarian Shiites militias calling them the new national guards. This formation had neither real military discipline nor the military integrity. Despite the fact that the army had three to four brigades in the Mosul province, equipped with some advanced armaments, supported by squadrons of the air force and headed by the top ranking generals they were subdued in a matter of hours by comparatively small armed force.
The mistakes of Prime Minister al-Maliki began by following a sectarian policy that sidelined and offended the Sunni community, haunting the Sunni leaders that opposed his policies by accusing them of harbouring terrorism and finally by using excessive military force to subdue the peaceful demonstrations that erupted in al-Anbar and spread to other Sunni dominated areas. The demands of al-Anbar protesters were just and understandable. They demanded an immediate stop of the arbitrary arrest of members of the Sunni community, liberating the detained Sunni women and equality in the participation in the government posts. Instead of complying with these demands al-Maliki resorted to the excessive use of force to subdue the protesters of al-Anbar. The use of force resulted in destroying big parts of al-Anbar and the killing of hundreds of innocent people. Dr. Mahmoud from the General Hospital of al-Ramadi, capital of al-Anbar province, declared that the arbitral bombing of al-Anbar has even reached the hospital and its patients, which made live impossible in this city. Fearing that the inhabitants of Mosul could join those of al-Anabar, al-Maliki’s forces encroached on the population of that city only to increase Sunni discontent in Iraq. Thus it was no surprise that the inhabitants of these areas, especially Mosul, were passive in receiving the new forces of ISIS. More disastrous was the fact that the Iraqi army left all its advanced armaments to the attacking forces, including helicopters and tanks. What makes al-Maliki’s a prime responsible is the fact that his second cabinet (established in 2010) included no ministers for defence and interior, the two ministries were run directly by him. More than one year ago he appointed the minister of culture as acting minister of defence, but this did not change anything on the ground or of his total domination of the armed forces. On top of that news of the widespread corruption inside the two ministries of defence and interior were an open secret but the al-Maliki failed to heed them or do anything to amend things.
In fact this was not the first time Mr. Maliki fails to solve a major problem that he faces. Throughout his two terms in offices (2006-2014) he created many problems, such as his confrontation with the Kurdish regional government and with the inhabitants of al-Anbar, and failed to solve any of them. He even failed to counter the widespread corruption that overwhelmed his administration which resulted in the squandering of about $700 billion, the income of the oil revenues since 2003. Despite this huge amount of money the people are still living under deplorable conditions, no electricity, no drinking water, no general daily services or enough food rations. Not a single corrupt official was put to trial and no major project was completed, such as new hospitals, schools or refineries. Consequently Iraq was classified as a failing state according to CSIS-Washington report for May 2014. Iraq also is rated 179 in accountability of the government, 201 in political stability and violence, 182 in the efficiency of the government, 205 in law enforcement, 193 in controlling corruption and 171 in corruption. Transparency International‘s Corruption ranked 171 out of 177.
Instead of trying to solve these huge problems al-Maliki resorted to subdue the Sunni dominated areas by force. His solution took a huge blow by the fall of Mosul and Tikrit. Even the most needed alternative that of winning over the Sunni community and dropping his sectarian policies was not considered by him. Feeling his difficult impasse Al-Maliki’s chose to ask for help from the USA and Iran to help him face the ISIS advances. While the US president Barak Obama shunned him, Iran was more willing to help. The Iranian assistance was of three dimensions. First it provided him with jet fighters which he is using in bombing the areas under the control of ISIS. It is worth mentioning that these jet fighters are originally Iraqi ones send by late president Saddam Husain to Iran in 1991 to protect them but Iran refused to return them. Second, Iran is sending forces to fight alongside the Iraqi forces. Thirdly Iran is strongly supporting his claim for a third term in office. Needless to say that the US refusal to extend assistance to Iraq despite the existence of strategic treaty (SOFA)between the two country only added to mistakes committed by this country since 2003; while the Iranian assistance could only increase the sectarian tension in the country. However, up till now all the Iraqi armed forces attempts to retrieve Mosul, Tikrit or any other lost lands to ISIS have failed. To complicate things more the Kurdish Regional Government ordered its armed forces, the Peshmarga, to take full control of the disputed oil rich province of Kirkuk and annexed it to the Kurdish region, only to add a new humiliation to the central government as well as depriving it of a major oil revenue.
In Mosul itself, although first indications showed a relaxation of security measures, but later measures taken by ISIS are again harassing the inhabitants in a different ways. ISIS leadership declared Mosul as an Islamic state (Khaliphate) and restricted the movements of females. It also began to destroy all historical and traditional sculptures as well as Shiite shrines and Christian churches. Then they ordered the indigenous Christian community of Mosul either to convert into Islam or pay personal taxes to gain the protection of the state or to leave Mosul within 24 hours. The vast majority of the community had no alternative but to leave all their belongings and flee. These measures, together with the failure of ISIS to pay the salaries of the employees or protect the city from the heavy air bombardment, will only lead to the alienation of the Mosul population who are already discontented with these measures, especially the deportation of the Christian community.
In the midst of this complicated or in fact disastrous situation, on one hand the Iraqi politicians in Baghdad are still embroiled in a futile and irresponsible struggle for power. Although the latest elections took place last April, and its final results were announces a month later, there is still no new government in Baghdad. The election showed that the list of al-Maliki won the biggest number of seats in the parliament, but without securing the needed majority to establish a government. His old Shiite allies, whose support could provide such a majority, are refusing to support him for a third term. No agreement has yet been reached on this issue. The country is still run by a care taking cabinet, something that can only add to the low morale of the armed forces and people. On the other hand the internal struggle between the Kurdish region and the central government reached its peak following Mr. Barzani instruction to the Kurdish parliament to prepare for a referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Although the future of Iraq is very bleak and it’s pessimistic in all dimensions. But they are few steps that could ease the tension. Al-Maliki departure and the formation of a government of national unity of technocrats, is on top of them, which could put an end to corruption and restore services, could perhaps offer an outlet. Also such a solution could put an end to the many disputes and pending problems he has created with the Kurdish regional government, the Sunni provinces and lastly with his own Shiite coalition. There are indications that a sort of agreement may be reached about a replacement for al-Maliki from his own coalition, despite his insistence that the big votes he got in the very much disputed elections of last April and the military power he still commands could get him out of this critical situation. The only problem is that all the names nominated to replace al-Maliki are no different from him. They are all sectarian, never showed any desire for a national reconciliation and some of them are accused of corruption or brutal liquidation of their opponents. At any rate al-Maliki’s insistence to remain in office or his replacement by another failing prime minister will only speed Iraq’s indulgent in a Syrian type civil war. Finally, it seems that Iraq is in a bad need of UN-EU to help it rebuilding peace and the country.
Dr. Sawsan I. Al-assaf was a senior lecturer of Political Science at Baghdad University. Currently, she is a member of coordinator team on the project: Iraq’s Intelligentsia under Siege: 1980-2013, Chicago University
© Photo: Members of the minority Yazidi ask for the international community help during a demonstration on the border between Iraq and Syria / YOUSSEF Boudlal (REUTERS)
